蔷薇的背风低压

刚感觉编号不对，突然意识到这是2015年西太第一扰

涡度泛白

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 06N 116E WEST 10 KT.
JMA 看来会渐进把定位放到 90W 并视其为蔷薇的延续。

这要是真发展了就会出现一个JMA编号对应两个JTWC编号的奇景

在NRL存档中90W被分到了2014年里

没用了，无法东山再起

米克拉？

EC和GFS均认为这两天就是巅峰，之后缓慢减弱消散昨晚风场显示有LLCC

90W INVEST 150102 0000 6.5N 112.8E WPAC 20 1006

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.3N 113.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. THIS AREA IS NOT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W, WHICH CLEARLY DISSIPATED OVER NORTHERN
BORNEO, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF THIS SYSTEM. ANIMATED INFRARED
AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 012119Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH QUADRANT INTO
THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGE
INDICATES A DISTINCT CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SHIP OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST REVEAL NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 20 KNOTS, PROVIDING EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF THE ADJACENT NORTHEAST SURGE
EVENT.

UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
JTWC评级medium